The Black Death (bubonic plague) with rodents as reservoirs of infection started in central Asia. It first spread to Europe, striking port cities and then followed the trade routes, both by sea and land. From central Asia, it was carried east and west along the Silk Road, by Mongol armies and traders making use of the opportunities of free passage within the Mongol Empire. The plague was reportedly first introduced to Europe at the trading city of Caffa in the Crimea in 1347. It then spread the first outbreaks in China, striking the Chinese province of Hubei in 1334.Baby Boomers and some Generation X will remember playing Dungeons and Dragons (D&D).

Now, the new D & D is Disasters and Diseases. Recall that SARS struck in 2003 while the Tsunami disaster struck on 26 Dec 2004. With alarmingly increasing frequency, one now often read of Asia disasters and diseases: China earthquakes with death toll above 20,000, Myanmar cyclone which has left around 62,000 dead or missing, dengue fever in Singapore, Sri Lanka flash floods displacing thousands in war-torn area, 208 human deaths caused by the Asian bird flu, Vietnam bird flu outbreak spreading to Hanoi, and a drought which forced more than 10,000 Australian farmers off land. These alone occurred from March to May alone in 2008, not counting the latest H1N1 Swine Virus outbreak.

How will such events affect Asia's business and investment climate?

Foreign investor sentiment and confidence may be reduced. Business costs may increase due to spiralling employee healthcare, delays in logistics and transport infrastructure slowdown. Disasters will also reduce power supply, capacity and transmission, natural gas supply, and adversely affect telecommunication networks. In densely populated Asian cities, diseases will also affect employees' ability to produce goods and services. If we magnify the disaster effects on a bigger scale in big countries like China and India (concurrent markets for natural resources, raw materials and customers), Asian businesses might find it difficult to cope in the short and medium term in producing goods and services, much needed for export earnings. Already in China, pollution is the biggest threat to growth bringing health and environmental issues. Disasters are likely to worsen pollution, not ease it. According to the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), the outcome of Asia's high rate of urbanization has been the expansion of urban populations into geographic areas, which are frequently affected by disaster events. The result is an increased vulnerability of populations and infrastructure.

Disaster mitigation measures have rarely been attempted in most Asian countries. These include earthquake and cyclone-resistant buildings and infrastructure, flood and landslide control measures, incorporation of disaster vulnerability into land-use planning, and introduction of regulatory measures in industrialized zones. Thereby is another Asia business opportunity for savvy businesses! In China and India, investments in 'disaster-proof' infrastructure and logistics will increase China's attractiveness as an investment location. Besides disasters, diseases can severely reduce economic growth and development also. The World Health Organization (WHO) stated that pandemic influenza is the most feared security threat. Infectious diseases are now spreading faster and emerging more quickly than before. WHO reports that since the 1970s, newly emerging diseases have been identified at the unprecedented rate of one or more per year. Between 2003 to 2006 in South East Asia alone, there were 81 verified events of potential international public health concern.

In 2003, SARS spread from person to person, required no vector, displayed no particular geographical affinity, incubated silently for more than a week, mimicked the symptoms of many other diseases, and killed around 10% of those infected. SARS spread easily along the routes of Asian air travel, placing every city with an international airport at risk of imported cases. As for the infamous Asia H5N1bird flu virus, it is principally an avian disease, first seen in humans in Hong Kong, 1997. As of 21 April 2008 (FAO/WHO), there are already 309 reported cases with 208 deaths of human bird flu. Bird flu has swept through poultry and wild birds in Asia since 2003. It has killed huge numbers of birds and led to more than 60 human deaths. A flu pandemic could happen at any time and kill between 5-150 million people, warned Dr David Nabarro, the UN's co-ordinator for avian and human influenza Dr Nabarro, who is charged with coordinating responses to bird flu, said a mutation of the virus affecting Asia could trigger new outbreaks. "It's like a combination of global warming and HIV/Aids 10 times faster than it's running at the moment," Dr Nabarro told the BBC.